USD Graphic Rewind: Dollar Index Rockets Higher on ADP, ISM Beats

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/usd_graphic_rewind/2011/01/06/USD_Graphic_Rewind.html

The dollar index notched up its best day of gains since the middle of November yesterday, supported by an impressive ADP employment report and a solid ISM reading. The string of positive US data recently certainly suggests that the recovery is finally beginning to take hold and the economy is gaining some momentum. USD bulls will likely wait for NFPs on Friday before releasing the full force of their bullish leanings on the buck, a strong reading could see an intense dollar rally. Nonetheless, the index climbed back above the key 80.00 and held its ground above the level in Asian trade, which certainly bodes well for further gains into the last few sessions of the week.

Over-night trade has been very subdued as Asia/Pacific equities trade mixed, commodities trade in narrow ranges and major currencies move sideways. This isn’t unusual as we approach the NFP report, due Friday, but is likely to make for lackluster trade until the release.

Written by Jonathan Granby, DailyFX Research Team

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Crude Oil Rebounds after Inventories Plunge Yet Again, Gold Falls for a Third Day as Dollar Rallies

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/commodities/2011/01/06/Crude_Oil_Rebounds_after_Inventories_Plunge_Yet_Again_Gold_Falls_for_a_Third_Day_as_Dollar_Rallies.html

Commodities – Energy

Crude Oil Rebounds after Inventories Plunge Yet Again

Crude Oil (WTI) - $90.29 // $0.01 // 0.01%

Commentary: Crude oil added $0.92, or 1.03%, to settle at $90.30, reversing earlier losses that took the commodity as low as $88.10. The news flow for the day was across the board positive. U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite for December came in at 57.1, above the 55.7 expected and at the highest level since 2006. We also received the ADP estimate for growth in the labor force for December and it came out at a record level of 297K. Most market participants aren’t buying that figure since the ADP has been way off the mark from the government nonfarm payrolls report in the past. Most economists expect about a 170K increase to be reported on Friday—still a constructive number.

Also of note was the DOE inventory report. That seemed to be the catalyst that spurred crude’s reversal. An excerpt from our Crude Oil Inventory Watch report:

“U.S. petroleum inventories continue to plunge. 9 of the last 10 weeks have seen a decline in the total petroleum surplus, which now stands at 49 million barrels, or 4.8%, down from 5.5% last week and less than half of the 110 million, or 10.7% surplus back in September. Most benchmark crudes are reflecting this apparent tightening of the physical market with Brent near $96 and LLS near $98.”

Yet WTI continues to lag with the benchmark now trading $5 below Brent and $7 below LLS.

Technical Outlook: Prices rebounded after yesterday’s selloff having probed near support at $87.80, the 38.2%Fibonacci retracement of the 11/17/10-1/3/11 rally, rising to retest support-turned-resistance at a rising trend line set from November’s swing bottom. The move appears corrective, with renewed selling likely ahead. Initial support stands at $89.63, the 23.6% Fib, with a break back below that exposing $87.80 once again.

Commodities – Metals

Gold Falls for a Third Day as Dollar Rallies

Gold - $1375.93 // $2.40 // 0.17%

Commentary: Gold fell for a third day, shedding $2.40, or 0.17%, to settle at $1378.32. A sharp rally in the U.S. Dollar kept a lid on prices as traders (perhaps) begin to look toward the Fed’s exit from its zero interest rate policy. Monetary conditions since late 2008 have been perfect for gold: zero interest rates and quantitative easing. As economic data firms, the prospect that monetary conditions may begin to tighten becomes more and more of a possibility. How will gold prices respond? That depends on how these changing circumstances impact investor demand for the metal. If they have no impact and demand continues to rise briskly, prices will not fall (and vice versa). It’s as simple as that.

Technical Outlook:Prices put in a Doji candlestick at rising trend line support set from late October, pointing to indecision and hinting that a corrective upswing may materialize before selling resumes. Still, longer-term positioning hints a triple top is taking shape below $1424.60. Near-term resistance stands at the $1400 figure, while the aforementioned trend line (now at $1377.10) remains as support, with a break below that exposingthe 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 7/28/10-12/7/10 advance at $1326.50.

Silver - $29.38 // $0.13 // 0.44%

Commentary: Silver shed $0.50, or 1.69%, to settle at $29.26. Silver outsized move seems to be a bit of catch up from yesterday. In a scenario in which the precious metals trade unwinds, silver will likely be devastated as the gold/silver ratio bounces back in favor of gold.

The gold/silver rose to 46.8, but remains near the lowest levels since April 2006. (The gold/silver ratio measures the relative performance of the two precious metals. A higher ratio indicates gold outperformance, while a lower ratio indicates silver outperformance).

Technical Outlook: Prices have broken through support at the bottom of a bearish Rising Wedge formation set from early November,clearing the way for a decline to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 8/24/10-1/3/11 rally at $28.05. The wedge’s lower boundary (now at $29.77) has been recast as near-term resistance.

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Greenback Finding Solid Bids on Stronger US Data As Correlations Break

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/opening_comment/2011/01/06/Greenback_Finding_Solid_Bids.html

Market participants are growing increasingly confident with the prospects for a legitimate recovery in the US economy, as economic data continues to show signs of impressive improvement. Wednesday’s blow-out ADP jobs report, and better than expected ISM non-manufacturing (4-year high) have helped to inspire the latest round of broad based USD buying, with correlations of better US data and a weaker US Dollar breaking down. It now seems as though the market is growing less confident in overseas markets and is finding comfort in a flow of funds not only into US equity markets but also into the Greenback.

Unfortunately for us, this has not helped our latest trade, with a long EUR/CAD position trading out of the money. The Canadian Dollar was actually even stronger than the US Dollar on Wednesday, with the arguably sounder economy benefiting from its proximity to the US and finding relative strength on its own merits. We still however believe that the Canadian Dollar should be exposed to future weakness at current levels on the basis of what appears to be a currency trading by longer-term cyclical highs that is also very much exposed to a potential pullback in global commodity prices as China slows in reaction to the latest tightening moves from the PBOC.

As we look at broader price action in the major currencies, EUR/USD is still locked in a multi-day consolidation, while GBP/USD also chops around. USD/JPY and USD/CHF on the other hand, have been on the move, with some major relative weakness seen across the board in both the Yen and Swiss Franc in recent trade. These currencies which had been star performers in 2010, have certainly stumbled in early 2011, and we contend that this early price action could very well set the tone for the coming months.

Looking ahead, Swiss foreign currency reserves are due at 8:00GMT, followed by Swiss CPI (-0.1% expected) at 8:15GMT. UK services PMI (52.8 expected) and official reserves are then out at 9:30GMT. A slew of Eurozone data then comes out at 10:00GMT in the form of consumer confidence (-10.2 expected), economic confidence (105.8 expected), industrial confidence (2.0 expected), retail sales (0.2% expected), business climate (1.00 expected) and services confidence (10.1 expected). Germany factory orders (1.0% expected) round things out at 11:00GMT. In North American trade, US initial jobless claims (408k expected) and continuing claims (4080k expected) are out at 13:30GMT, followed by Canada Ivey PMI (54.0 expected) at 15:00GMT. US equity futures and commodities prices trade flat thus far on the day.

Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Strategist

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Queensland Floods Impact to the Australian Dollar is Seen as Modest

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/special_report/2011/01/06/Queensland_Floods_Impact_to_the_Australian_Dollar_is_Seen_as_Modest.html

“A disaster of biblical proportions.” That’s what State Treasurer Andrew Fraser called the record floods that have battered Queensland, a large state in northeast Australia. What began as a page-16 story has now made its way to the front page as economists scramble to update their forecasts for growth not only in Queensland, but for Australia as a whole.

Furthermore, because Queensland is a major exporter, the repercussions are global. Prices for many commodities have spiked higher on fears that supply will be reduced by this natural disaster. The greatest impact seems to be on coal markets. As the largest exporter of the commodity in the world, Australia is responsible for supplying coal to some of the major emerging market economies in Asia. Benchmark prices have spiked 17% since last week as markets realized the extent of the situation. Specifically, 75% of Queensland’s coal production has been halted in response to the floods.

Another commodity that has been affected is wheat. It is possible that much of the Queensland’s output has been destroyed due to the unusual weather conditions. But as the region only produces about 5% of Australia’s total output, the impact on this market is not as severe. Other markets that have been affected include that for sugar and cotton.

If there is any silver lining to the devastation of these floods, it is the boost in commodity prices. Australia is still one of the largest commodity exporters in the world and thus these higher prices will help offset the negative economic impact from the reduction in output and exports.

Another cost of these floods is the damage done to infrastructure. Queensland’s premier has said that the damage to the state’s infrastructure has been “catastrophic.” Transportation systems in particular have been badly damaged, which incidentally, could lead to reduced coal exports for some time.

But what financial markets are most concerned about is the overall impact to the Australian economy from these floods. Estimates have generally been for a reduction of 0.2% to 0.5% in 2011 GDP, or several billion dollars in total damage. This is relatively modest when you consider that the consensus estimate for growth in the Australian economy before the floods was in the neighborhood of 3.7%, well above estimates for other developed economies such as the U.S (2.6%), Euro-Zone (1.5%), UK (2%), or Canada (2.4%).

Nevertheless, the floods have given the Reserve Bank of Australia- which was already on pause- another reason to hold rates steady in the coming months. Market interest rate expectations have fallen with overnight index swaps suggesting that the central bank will only hike rates one time throughout the year. Expectations were closer to two hikes only a week ago. This has pressured the Australian Dollar, although we have seen most U.S-Dollar rivals decline over the last few days, making it difficult to separate the flood impact from the general U.S. Dollar bullishness. If we look at the Aussie versus a competing carry currency such as the Kiwi, it actually hasn’t fallen at all, suggesting that the event has only had a modest impact on forex markets.

AUD/NZD Daily Chart:

AUD/USD Daily Chart:

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FOREX: Dollar Extends its Biggest Rally in a Month with the Help of Strong Data and Confused Risk Trends

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/session_briefing/daily_fundamentals/2011/01/06/FOREX_Dollar_Extends_its_Biggest_Rally_in_a_Month_with_the_Help_of_Strong_Data_and_Confused_Risk_Trends.html

• Dollar Extends its Biggest Rally in a Month with the Help of Strong Data and Confused Risk Trends
• Euro: Can China Fill in the Europe’s Financial Gaps Where the Market and EU Fall Short?
• Swiss Franc: What are the Implications of an SNB that Snubs Irish Debt?
• British Pound Not as Strong as EURGBP and GBPJPY Seem to Suggest
• Japanese Yen Plunge Continues with Select Pairs as Risk Trends Take up the Cause
• Australian Dollar May Suffer Materially for the Nation’s Flood

Dollar Extends its Biggest Rally in a Month with the Help of Strong Data and Confused Risk Trends

We can’t deny the dollar’s recent strength. Taking score, the greenback posted its biggest rally in three weeks against the euro, three-and-a-half months against the Japanese yen and 21 months against the Swiss franc. For the other majors, the dollar’s performance was a little more down to earth; but its consistency is enough to confirm the currency’s general strength. However, while we can’t refute the dollar’s recent strength; we do have reason to doubt the stability of this young trend. To form a true opinion of the fundamental outlook, it is important to once again look at the correlations (or lack thereof) between the different asset classes. Though currencies, equities, commodities and other securities are very different from one another in many aspects; they all fall under the scope of investor sentiment. As underlying risk appetite oscillates from one extreme to the other, capital flows naturally follow the same paths between safe haven and high yield assets. That said, a broader view of risk appetite would offer a confused picture. Both the Japanese yen and Swiss franc tumbled Wednesday alongside declines for the Australian and New Zealand dollars. At the same time, the benchmark S&P 500 has maintained its remarkably consistent climb. This mixed picture tells us that investor sentiment is not strong enough an influence at the moment to unify participants in the various markets. And, if this key driver is absent, what will keep the dollar buoyant?

There are fundamental catalysts other than risk appetite trends that can influence the greater flow of capital; but most of them exist only in unique market conditions. The appetite for return versus the fear of loss is elemental to all investment decisions; and that makes it a common denominator for all markets. As such, it is only a matter of time before clear moves in risk appetite once again take back the reins. In the meantime, speculators are leveraging their influence on the market. Feeding the recovery momentum that began Monday/Tuesday, the dollar found an accelerant in strong economic data. As little as a month, anything to encourage the outlook for a strong economic recovery would have leveraged investor confidence and subsequently hurt the safe haven US dollar. However, with the strong showings on the headline ISM non-manufacturing (services) sector and ADP employment reports, the S&P 500 would restrain its performance to the steadying trend of the past four months and the greenback would actually rally. The proprietary jobs report proved the more remarkable release when it reported payrolls rose by 297,000 through December. This was the biggest increase on record and three times the market consensus. If this were NFPs, the impact meaning and impact would be remarkable. Yet, despite their efforts, this indicator has not proven itself an accurate benchmark to the government figure. So, while excitement around NFPs has certainly increased; we should remain skeptical of the indicators outcome.

In contrast to the ADP figure, the service sector activity report likely carries more weight when it comes to forecasting economic activity. Accounting for roughly 80 percent of GDP, a true recovery will be founded in this sector. As such, the highest reading from the indicator since May 2006 (57.1) is an encouraging sign. On the other hand, US consumer spending is the foundation of everything; so a 2.2 percentage point drop in the measure’s employment gauge (50.5) contradicts the ADP report and obscures a bullish forecast.

Related: Discuss the Dollar in the DailyFX Forum, John’s Analyst Picks: Booking EURUSD, Though the Pair Still has Potential

Euro: Can China Fill in the Europe’s Financial Gaps Where the Market and EU Fall Short?

European Union financial problems cannot be wished away. However, they can be ignored for a while. That has been more or less the circumstances surrounding the currency through the past month as downgrades, nationalizations and discussion of debt restructuring crowded the headlines. Now, with liquidity filling back out and investors ready to allocate capital for 2011, we are waiting for a catalyst to reengage a euro trend. A modest upward revision in the region’s service sector index offers a weak argument for confidence. Far more concerning was Portugal’s six-month bond auction which drew a yield (their cost) of 3.686 percent. For perspective, they were paying 2.045 percent in September and 0.594 percent a year ago. Perhaps China’s recent interest in Greece, Spain and other EU countries’ debt can help stem the bleeding…

Swiss Franc: What are the Implications of an SNB that Snubs Irish Debt?

It was initial reported Tuesday and confirmed Wednesday that the SNB had announced it was no longer accepting Irish government debt as collateral for its repurchasing operations. The impact this has on the euro is relatively straightforward; but what does it mean for the franc? Well, destabilizing confidence in the shared currency only encourages the flow of capital to the safe haven franc.

British Pound Not as Strong as EURGBP and GBPJPY Seem to Suggest

The British pound was exceptionally strong Wednesday – that is against the euro, Swiss franc and Japanese yen. Yet, these currencies themselves were exceptionally weak. It seemed the currency’s performance was mixed on balance; and that is not unexpected given the lack of fundamental activity for the day. Only the construction activity report for December was on our radar and that is hardly a top tier indicator.

Japanese Yen Plunge Continues with Select Pairs as Risk Trends Take up the Cause

Like the euro and pound, the yen’s performance is mixed – though where it is falling, it does so with gusto. The economic docket is still relatively light; but Finance Minister Kan’s suggestion of growth killing tax hikes still stings. What’s more, the bullish performance of the Nikkei 225 this week is offering a domestic source of risk appetite flows – a burden to a funding currency.

Australian Dollar May Suffer Materially for the Nation’s Flood

Just how influential is the flood in Australia to its economy and currency? RBA member McGauchie suggested it could be “significant” as exports are hurt in the short-term and infrastructure is destroyed in the medium-term. What does this mean for currency traders? A tempered pace of growth and a reason for the central bank to further ease up on rate hikes.

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ECONOMIC DATA

Next 24 Hours

Currency	GMT	Release	Survey	Previous	Comments
AUD	22:30	AiG Performance of Service Index (DEC)		46.2	Index hasn't gained consecutive months since Feb-March.
AUD	0:30	Building Approvals (MoM) (NOV)	-4.0%	9.3%	Signs of eroding Aussie housing market beginning to show.
AUD	0:30	Building Approvals (YoY) (NOV)	-9.8%	1.2%
CHF	8:00	Foreign Currency Reserves (DEC)		212.4B	Should drop as Franc strengthened.
CHF	8:15	Consumer Price Index (MoM) (DEC)	-0.1%	0.2%	Deflation could spur intervention rumors.
CHF	8:15	Consumer Price Index (YoY) (DEC)	0.4%	0.2%
GBP	9:30	Purchasing Manager Index Services (DEC)	52.8	53.0	Steady growth expected.
EUR	10:00	Euro-Zone Economic Confidence (DEC)	105.8	105.3	Most Euro-confidence indicators expected to rise, though could be short-lived optimism as sovereign debt problems have begun to resurface.
EUR	10:00	Euro-Zone Business Climate Indicator (DEC)	1.00	0.96
EUR	10:00	Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (DEC)	-10.5	-9.4
EUR	10:00	Euro-Zone Industrial Confidence (DEC)	2.0	0.9
EUR	10:00	Euro-Zone Services Confidence (DEC)	10.1	10.2
EUR	10:00	Euro-Zone Retail Sales (MoM) (NOV)	0.2%	0.3%	Sales likely to be boosted again by German consumption.
EUR	10:00	Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY) (NOV)	2.1%	1.3%
EUR	11:00	German Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) (NOV)	1.0%	1.6%	Decline in orders likely as domestic demand tapers off.
EUR	11:00	German Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) (NOV)	15.8%	17.9%
USD	13:30	Initial Jobless Claims (JAN 1)	400K	388K	Labor market expected to continue recent recovery momentum.
USD	13:30	Continuing Claims (DEC 25)	4080K	4128K
CAD	15:00	Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (DEC)	53.3	57.5	Could outpace survey as Canadian economy heats up.
USD	21:00	RPX Composite 28 Day (YoY) (OCT)		-1.86%	Index could break above 190.00 for first time since August.
USD	21:00	RPX Composite 28 Day Index (OCT 31)		189.21
Currency	GMT	Upcoming Events & Speeches
EUR	-:-	Italian Market Closed For Epiphany

SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS

CLASSIC SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE - 18:00 GMT

Currency	EUR/USD	GBP/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	USD/CAD	AUD/USD	NZD/USD	EUR/JPY	GBP/JPY
Resist 2	1.3840	1.6420	89.00	1.0000	1.0922	1.0600	0.8230	127.60	146.05
Resist 1	1.3700	1.5910	86.00	0.9735	1.0750	1.0200	0.8000	120.00	140.00
Spot	1.3155	1.5511	83.26	0.9658	0.9963	0.9999	0.7579	109.52	129.14
Support 1	1.3000	1.5312	80.00	0.9300	0.9950	0.9600	0.6850	103.80	125.00
Support 2	1.2925	1.5186	75.00	0.9000	0.9700	0.9375	0.6585	100.00	119.00

CLASSIC SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE –EMERGING MARKETS 18:00 GMTSCANDIES CURRENCIES 18:00 GMT

Currency	USD/MXN	USD/TRY	USD/ZAR	USD/HKD	USD/SGD		Currency	USD/SEK	USD/DKK	USD/NOK
Resist 2	14.4500	1.6755	7.1750	7.8165	1.4945		Resist 2	7.7500	5.7800	6.2750
Resist 1	13.8500	1.5931	6.7650	7.8075	1.4655		Resist 1	7.5800	5.6625	6.1150
Spot	12.1906	1.5448	6.7032	7.7705	1.2919		Spot	6.7659	5.6651	5.9014
Support 1	12.0500	1.4724	6.4000	7.7490	1.2750		Support 1	6.4500	5.2625	5.7030
Support 2	11.7200	1.3475	5.9200	7.7450	1.2500		Support 2	6.1250	5.1000	5.5200

INTRA-DAY PIVOT POINTS 18:00 GMT

Currency	EUR/USD	GBP/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	USD/CAD	AUD/USD	NZD/USD	EUR/JPY	GBP/JPY
Resist 2	1.3401	1.5707	84.33	0.9820	1.0062	1.0127	0.7718	110.49	130.30
Resist 1	1.3278	1.5609	83.80	0.9739	1.0013	1.0063	0.7648	110.01	129.72
Pivot	1.3202	1.5530	82.84	0.9604	0.9973	1.0012	0.7612	109.26	128.59
Support 1	1.3079	1.5432	82.31	0.9523	0.9924	0.9948	0.7542	108.78	128.01
Support 2	1.3003	1.5353	81.35	0.9388	0.9884	0.9897	0.7506	108.03	126.88

INTRA-DAY PROBABILITY BANDS 18:00 GMT

\

Currency	EUR/USD	GBP/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	USD/CAD	AUD/USD	NZD/USD	EUR/JPY	GBP/JPY
Resist. 3	1.3345	1.5689	84.24	0.9783	1.0072	1.0147	0.7695	111.18	130.96
Resist. 2	1.3297	1.5644	83.99	0.9752	1.0045	1.0110	0.7666	110.76	130.50
Resist. 1	1.3250	1.5600	83.75	0.9720	1.0017	1.0073	0.7637	110.35	130.05
Spot	1.3155	1.5511	83.26	0.9658	0.9963	0.9999	0.7579	109.52	129.14
Support 1	1.3060	1.5422	82.77	0.9596	0.9909	0.9925	0.7521	108.69	128.23
Support 2	1.3013	1.5378	82.53	0.9564	0.9881	0.9888	0.7492	108.28	127.78
Support 3	1.2965	1.5333	82.28	0.9533	0.9854	0.9851	0.7463	107.86	127.32

v

Written by: John Kicklighter, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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