forex.blogspot: Jan 1, 2011

Saturday, January 1, 2011

LONDON SESSION: Markets quiet heading into year's end

http://www.forex.com/uk/post?SDN=a0624b74-8038-4b12-b1ae-a66c0f5176f1&Pa=20db1fa6-e674-420c-9a87-2ee29261d638

The dollar weakened following yesterday’s disappointing U.S. data releases and year-end trading remained thin. There was an absence of economic data out of Asia last night and Europe saw a very light data flow. The November Euro zone M3 money supply grew +1.9% YoY higher than the forecast of +1.6% (prior +0.9%) indicating that the ECB’s expansionary policy is impacting the money supply. German December CPI was released higher than expected with a MoM rise to +1.0% vs. expected +0.9% and prior +0.1% and YoY printing at +1.7% (cons. +1.5% prior +1.5%). This is largely in line with German state CPI figures for December which showed that inflation picked up in five German states. EUR/USD bounced from lows around the 200-day sma which comes in around 1.3085 to current levels of about 1.3130 on the back of a softer dollar.
In Switzerland, the December KOF leading indicator came in line with expectations at 2.10, a drop from the prior 2.13 signaling a slight decline in the momentum of growth. The Swiss franc traded stronger with USD/CHF and EUR/CHF trading near record lows.
There is no US economic data scheduled for today.

Disclaimer: The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

NY SESSION: Yields send the dollar tumbling

http://www.forex.com/uk/post?SDN=0f27c677-380b-4355-a507-25ff55c7995a&Pa=20db1fa6-e674-420c-9a87-2ee29261d638

The dollar lost ground as U.S. treasury yields tumbled sending the greenback to record lows against the Australian dollar and near record lows against the Swiss franc. AUD/USD surged to new all time free-floating highs of around 1.0180 as yields on Australian 10-years rose and those of the U.S. equivalents dropped. The pair has traded at these levels in 1982 when the Australian dollar was pegged, however these are the highest levels seen since controls on the currency ended in 1983.
The U.S. auctioned $29 billion in 7-year notes which drew a high yield of 2.83% with a bid/cover ratio of 2.86 (up from the previous 2.63). Additionally, indirect bidders which include foreign central banks bought 64.2% of the notes – the highest level since June 2009. This strong demand sent yields lower resulting in a lower dollar. EUR/USD rallied above 1.3200, GBP/USD rose above 1.5500, and USD/CHF fell to near record levels as the dollar plummeted.
U.S. equities gained for the second consecutive session with the Dow Jones Industrial Average advancing by around +0.09% while the S&P 500 closed higher by about +0.10%. Commodities were mixed with oil slipping by nearly -0.49% and the metals shined. Gold rose around +0.36% and silver once again outperformed rallying by nearly +0.87%.
On the data front for the upcoming Asia/Pacific session is Japan’s weekly securities investments data and the December HSBC manufacturing PMI which due out of China.

THE COMMODITIES CORNER: XAU/EUR broke above bull flag resistance

http://www.forex.com/uk/post?SDN=0f9aa4b8-e502-489a-926c-810f89afd0a1&Pa=20db1fa6-e674-420c-9a87-2ee29261d638

Within hours of Monday’s Commodities Corner update, the gold-cross tested the key €1046-49 level highlighted and bounced significantly. During its rapid ascent, it took out bull flag resistance around €1054, propelled above the prior high near €1062 and even gave the €1070-72 resistance zone a run for its money before finally backing off. The move happened exactly like we anticipated, “Thin liquidity also suggests very narrow ranges, which are likely to be followed by sharp moves higher or lower and then another period of consolidation”, this enabled the pair to reach our initial profit target of €1070-72.
While our longer-term bias for XAU/EUR remains bullish, we believe with the New Year approaching it is foolish to remain in our long position as the risk due to the lack of liquidity outweighs the potential reward of profits.
We’ll be back in 2011 for our next Commodities Corner update!

Chart Source: Forex Charts by eSignal
Chris Tevere, CMT
Senior Technical Strategist
Get up to the minute market updates and commentary on Twitter.

ASIA SESSION: Year End Dollar Drop

http://www.forex.com/uk/post?SDN=31b82d80-1eab-430b-b90e-566cbe73af36&Pa=20db1fa6-e674-420c-9a87-2ee29261d638

The dollar continued to wilt today in Asia after lower bond yields prompted traders to sell the US currency. A solid showing in a seven year US Treasury bond auction earlier today drove bond prices up and yields lower and sparked another round of dollar selling that saw an apex here in Asia amidst thinned holiday trading conditions. EUR/USD topped 1.3255 today to complete a 175 pip move higher over the past 24 hours. Other currencies followed, with the Aussie and Swiss franc hitting record highs against the beleaguered greenback.
With a shroud of lingering debt concerns, the Euro has lost some of its luster to investors as of late. As an alternative, the Australian dollar and Swiss Franc are gaining popularity as less tarnished options for investment, pushing both currencies to record highs today against the dollar. The AUD/USD had the momentum to poke over the 1.0195 mark to post a level not seen in almost 30 years, only losing steam on weaker Chinese HSBC PMI data. As well, the USD/CHF pair saw a low of 0.9415 which represents an all time high for the franc, which has seen its value rise by over six big figures in the month of December alone. EUR/CHF saw lows of 1.2465 on a 40 pip drop today.
Against the yen, the dollar dropped to 81.26 lows, not very far from BOJ intervention levels from a few months ago. The yen crosses wilted lower as the Nikkei was pelted by over 1% on the day. While both gold and silver were slightly firmer, the precious metals remained mostly range bound in quiet trade conditions.
With tomorrow being New Years Eve in Asia, and with Japan out for the next four days, be wary of very thin market conditions until the New Year. For those of you in Asia on this last trade day of 2010, have a happy and prosperous 2011….

LONDON SESSION A Bruising Year-End for the Greenback

http://www.forex.com/uk/post?SDN=2aa3ae44-ba36-436b-81cc-0541dcb874c5&Pa=20db1fa6-e674-420c-9a87-2ee29261d638

Some observers of the currency market might think that it was detached from reality. The euro has risen more than 1 per cent against the dollar since the London market returned after the Christmas break, at the same time as Italy’s cost of borrowing has risen to a Euro-area high. Commodity currencies are also breaking higher along with stocks; the FTSE 100 is flirting with 6,000 as we end 2010, led higher by a robust performance from the miners.
The themes that are dominating during thin festive markets include expectations for robust global growth led by emerging markets, strong safe haven currencies and a weaker dollar across the board. The global growth story is fuelling commodity price gains. Copper hit another record yesterday and oil is still above the $90 per barrel level, although it is finding it difficult to convincingly break above $92 per barrel. This in turn is fuelling commodity currency strength. The Aussie dollar is above parity, and will start to look extremely interesting above 1.0200. It has been here before on a number of occasions during 2010, but has ended up stalling. If it can sustain strength at this pivotal level (it is currently trading at 1.0130/50) then the Aussie could gain upward momentum very quickly.
The euro has regained some strength vs. the dollar and 1.30 seems to be the low for now. If we break below this level on sovereign debt fears then the decline into the mid 1.20’s could be fairly rapid, especially since concern has spread to Italy’s extremely large financing requirements for 2011. However, with Germany’s economy still showing strength and its debt market remaining an extremely attractive investment, the euro’s stabilisation could well continue into 2011. Interestingly, the euro is the least weak of the major currencies, having risen against the greenback and the pound in recent days.
The rumour mill is once again focussing on Japan. The yen has risen strongly vs. the dollar, which is leading some market commentators to conclude that government intervention to weaken the yen might be around the corner. Indeed FX traders on the Tokyo Financial Exchange have become extremely bearish on the yen in recent days so a sharp correction in USD/JPY, especially in extremely thin markets over the coming days, is not beyond the realm of possibility. But for now, weaker USDJPY at the same time as Treasury yields are increasing seems to be the new normal.
As mentioned above, large-cap stocks have had a strong final week of the year. But this is not true for the smaller indices, including the Russell 3000 in the US and the Nasdaq. They have come off their highs in recent days. While these dips are a fairly normal reaction after such a strong run-up, any further decline should be watched by stock traders as the Russell and the Nasdaq led the run-up in large-caps and could also lead them on the downside.
US initial jobless claims and pending home sales are the main data releases of the week and could be market-moving events.

NY SESSION: U.S. dollar softer amid surprisingly positive economic data

http://www.forex.com/uk/post?SDN=d4e1bcb8-ab7a-46d4-bd40-a5a6be5adfde&Pa=20db1fa6-e674-420c-9a87-2ee29261d638

Risk sentiment was given a boost by surprisingly positive U.S. economic data as the year comes to a close, sending the dollar lower. EUR/USD rose to session highs above 1.33, AUD/USD traded close to record highs of around 1.02, and NZD/USD advanced to around 0.7725 as the dollar softened amid positive data releases. U.S. weekly jobless claims fell below 400K to the lowest levels since July 2008 with a print today of 388K. This was much lower than the market forecasts and a drop of 34K from the prior week’s 422K indicating that the labor market is moving in the right direction. The Chicago Purchasing Manager survey for December came in much stronger than expected as well with a jump to 68.6 – the highest level in 22 years – beating forecasts of a drop to 61 from the prior reading of 62.5. In the housing market, November pending home sales unexpectedly rose by +3.5% MoM (cons. +0.8% prior 10.1%). The better than anticipated data led to a pickup in risk appetite that weighed on the dollar, however equity markets did not participate in the positive sentiment.
U.S. equities declined slightly with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing the day down -0.13% and the S&P 500 slumped about -0.14%. Metals decline amid increased appetite for risk with gold and silver shedding about -0.51% and -0.45% respectively. Oil fell roughly -1.60% dipping below $90 a barrel as crude oil inventories fell by less than the anticipated -2.85 million barrels to -1.26 million barrels (prior -5.33 million).
On the data front for the upcoming Asia-Pacific session is Australia’s November private sector credit. Due out of China is the December MNI business condition survey and December manufacturing as well as non-manufacturing PMI.

CORRELATIONS CORNER: USD/JPY and Treasury yield correlation breaking down into year’s end

http://www.forex.com/uk/post?SDN=eae08697-06ae-4068-af87-9514d11282ea&Pa=20db1fa6-e674-420c-9a87-2ee29261d638

The USD/JPY pair and U.S. Treasury yields have traditionally had a high correlation, specifically with shorter term rates such as the 2-year Treasury yields seen below. Looking at the correlation this past year (exhibit 1), we can see that there has generally been a strong relationship in 2010 with an average correlation of about 0.83. This relationship has been diverging significantly since December began, dropping to yearly lows of about 0.54 today. Yen bulls have been driving the USD/JPY pair lower while Treasury yields have been advancing. While this relationship continues to diverge, the risk is that USD/JPY falls further as it approaches significant levels. The 15-year low in USD/JPY seen in late October is just above the psychological 80.00 level at around 80.25 and the all-time low of 79.75 seen in 1995 is just below that. With the greenback weakening to record levels recently as seen by record lows against AUD and CHF, it would not be surprising to see record lows against the yen as well – especially given recent positive economic data out of Japan. As a result of recent yen strength, interventionist rhetoric has picked up in Japan. See: FUNDAMENTAL UPDATE: Japanese officials resume jawboning

Source: Bloomberg, FOREX.com

Source: Bloomberg

Eric Viloria, CMT
Senior Technical Strategist
Get up to the minute market updates and commentary on Twitter.

FX Tech Lab: Update 3 – USD/CHF Reaches Fresh All-time Low

http://www.forex.com/uk/post?SDN=c28e5c52-42ab-41d5-bde6-6e5cfb6e1871&Pa=20db1fa6-e674-420c-9a87-2ee29261d638

Last week we looked for USD/CHF to break to a new all-time low after the technical landscape became increasingly bearish – Click here if you missed it. This week as we continued to ride the wave of Swiss strength, the pair finally broke to a new record low. We believe month-end/year-end rebalancing flows contributed to this move, as well as seasonal USD weakness during the month of December – For more, see our FX Seasonal Patterns: December Outlook. As such, while there is little from a technical perspective implying a USD turnaround, it may be prudent to take our profits before the current trading environment becomes too illiquid ahead of the holiday weekend.
KEY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Long-term Trendline Resistance at 0.9800 (in black)
Key Topside pivot 0.9720/40 (in grey)
Prior All-time low = 0.9465 (10/14)
Today’s Fresh All-time low = 0.9455 (so far)
Channel width from point of breakdown = 0.9340/50 (in red)

Our view of a final push to a new all-time low (sub-0.9465) has been achieved, thus we should be flat.
I wish you and your families a happy, healthy and prosperous New Years. See you in 2011!

Chart Source: Forex Charts by eSignal
Chris Tevere, CMT
Senior Technical Strategist
Get up to the minute market updates and commentary on Twitter.

Gold to Face Choppy Price Action as Liquidity Remains Low

Fundamental Forecast for Gold: Neutral

Gold pushed higher last week as debt contagion fears in the Euro-Zone continue to rattle markets, while tensions in Korea remain in the spotlight. As uncertainty in the global economy lingers, market participants should not rule out additional gains in the yellow metal as traders purchase the commodity for protection against the recent fundamental developments. Indeed, many strategists have been calling for a correction in gold; however, so long as price action remains supported by the 50-day, traders may witness the metal inch higher this week as the economic docket will be fairly muted.

This past week, gold faced whipsaw price action as many traders were offline ahead of the Christmas holiday. The unclear direction may spillover into next week's trade due to the New Year's Holiday. However, developments in the 16 member euro area may dictate price action as fears surrounding debt contagion in bloc drift. This past week, there was lot of activity by credit rating agencies. Fitch slashed Portugal to A+ from AA- and placed Greece's long term issuer default on review for a downgrade. Meanwhile, Moody's Investor Services announced that Portugal's credit rating is on review for a possible downgrade. Looking ahead, the debt crisis in the bloc looks poised to derail the euro next year as the 16 member euro area struggles to achieve a self-sustaining recovery. If the crisis in the bloc worsens and either Portugal or Spain hints at tapping into the EU-IMF life-line, which seems likely as of late, gold will continue to push higher.

Meanwhile, tensions in Korea should be overlooked. Last week, North Korea warned that it would retaliate if South Korea proceeds with a live firing drill on the west coast sea border. Surprisingly, South Korea went ahead with their drills and North Korea did not respond. Traders should not rule out an end to the tensions in the region as North Korea warned on Thursday that it was prepared to wage a nuclear "sacred war" on South Korea, while adding that the country could engage in conflict "at any time." The developments in Korea are worth noting due to the fact that if a war arises, gold will benefit on the back of a flight to safety.

There will be little event risks next week that could largely influence gold prices. Worth noting are U.S. consumer confidence, Euro-Zone M3 money supply, and U.K. nationwide house prices. Taking a look at price action, downside risks in gold remain capped by the 50-day moving average which has provided support for the precious metal since August 11th. So long as the commodity remains above this moving average, upside risks remain. Indeed, gold has worked its way into a triangle formation, and a breakout may be in the horizon. Rather than anticipate the move, traders should await confirmation, which may come to the downside as the MACD is displaying beginning signs of a crossover to the downside. All in all, remain on the sidelines for further developments in the global economy and avoid choppy price action amid the Christmas and New Year holidays. -MW

DailyFX provides forex news on the economic reports and political events that influence the currency market.
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Forex: Dollar Anchored by Liquidity, What Should We Expect for Trading Next Week?

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/session_briefing/daily_fundamentals/2010/12/24/Forex_Dollar_Anchored_by_Liquidity_What_Should_We_Expect_for_Trading_Next_Week.html

Dollar Anchored by Liquidity, What Should We Expect for Trading Next Week?
Euro Weakness - Temporarily Masked by Trading Conditions - Will Start to Show through Soon
British Pound Extends its Tentative Recovery Though Fundamental Reality Hard to Ignore
Japanese Yen Will Respond to Predicament of Capped Government Spending and BoJ Intervention
Swiss Franc Stumbles a Second Day as the SNB Capitalizes on Investor Squaring
New Zealand Dollar Likely to Give Back Post GDP Gains Next Week as Liquidity Stabilizes
Australian Dollar: Thin Speculative Interest Could Amplify any Risk Waves Next Week

Dollar Anchored by Liquidity, What Should We Expect for Trading Next Week?

No one was surprised when the dollar ended this past week little moved. The normal liquidity drain into the close Friday was magnified by the sidelined capital in accordance with the holiday weekend. However, if we look at the market conditions beyond the exaggerated impact of year-end position squaring; we can start to see the evidence of an impending collapse in risk appetite and capital markets in the not-too-distant future. Yet, timing is criticalhere. This past week was a write off as market participants ignored major economic releases, next-level financial troubles from Europe and adjustments in stimulus programs around the world to prevent major trends from hurting their positions. However, the global fundamentals have tangibly deteriorated in the past week and month; and resolution is required. If we were looking at the equities market, a dramatic move that sparked in the Asian market is most likely to bleed over to the European and US indexes when those markets come online. The same principle can be applied to the FX markets now as the backdrop for risk appetite trends and financial stability deteriorate; but the absence of the full speculative crowd delays the reaction.

In the week ahead, speculative liquidity is likely to pick up and therefore trading conditions will be a little more constructive (volatility will be better matched with trend potential). That said, there is unlikely to be a meaningful trend developing behind the US dollar or risk appetite trends in general. The year-end period is a far more widely-spread holiday for the global markets and the year-end tax implications for many regions will discourage large positions from being established. But, as always, the expectation that others will comply to the expected seasonal effects will almost certainly have the greatest influence (the ‘self-fulfilling prophecy’ phenomena has wide-spread implications for capital markets). That does not mean, however, that there is a no risk of dramatic price action. Liquidity conditions can actually amplify volatility; and there are still mean looming threats to global financial stability. Just a few threats to keep an eye out for are: a notable deterioration in the EU’s handling of its financial troubles; an escalation of the North and South Korea conflict; and an effort by China to further curb its market.

As for scheduled event risk; there isn’t much in the way of data that can encourage the dollar to fall back on its lingering safe haven traits (liquidity and highly regulated markets). For short-term influence, indicators like pending home sales, initial jobless claims and the S&P/Case Shiller home price data has little hold. The Conference Board consumer confidence report is top pick; but even that carries little weight.

Euro Weakness - Temporarily Masked by Trading Conditions - Will Start to Show through Soon

If we were to measure the euro’s performance against its benchmark counterpart (the dollar), we could be led to believe that the fundamental backdrop changed very little. However, the inherent stability derived from the liquidity of this pair means this is a poor indicator for the actual health of the shared currency. A better measure is EURCHF or EURJPY. From these pairs, we can see the unabashed efforts to avoid the risk associated to the euro. And, this past week, the risk for this unit certainly increased. In addition to Portugal’s downgrade, Ireland’s necessitating taking Allied Irish under government control and the passage of the more stringent Greek budget; we were met Friday with speculation from the Greek media that officials are moving towards a debt restructuring when the immediate support of the EU/IMF bailout is set to expire.

British Pound Extends its Tentative Recovery Though Fundamental Reality Hard to Ignore

In the past two weeks, the British pound has plunged over 550 points against the dollar on what many attribute to the BoE’s efforts to talk down high CPI readings and the disappointing employment figures The fact that the currency dropped so quickly in otherwise quiet market conditions is remarkable and therefore likely warrant a correction. However, this may also be just a peak at a long-term adjustment to fundamentals…

Japanese Yen Will Respond to Predicament of Capped Government Spending and BoJ Intervention

Deflation and credit market troubles have persisted in Japan for over two decades now; so what is the probability that officials will be able to correct the problem now that global conditions are so taxing? Friday, the Cabinet Office reaffirmed the proposal to cap 2011 debt issuance at 44.3 trillion yen while it was suggested that the reserves for intervention would likely be boosted. It is difficult to see this currency’s strength.

Swiss Franc Stumbles a Second Day as the SNB Capitalizes on Investor Squaring

Perhaps the biggest mover in an otherwise quiet day, the Swiss franc put in for a remarkable drop Friday. However, the activity exhibited across the board was likely attributable to EURCHF specifically. While it may be easy to label the SNB’s comments that they are ready to act the catalyst for this move; it is more likely that a natural position squaring through this heavily oversold pair carried more weight.

New Zealand Dollar Likely to Give Back Post GDP Gains Next Week as Liquidity Stabilizes

The New Zealand dollar’s gains Thursday morning following the unexpected contraction in growth through the third quarter was exceptionally unusual. And, that hiccup is likely to weigh on the currency next week. Just as the market often closes technical gaps, a fundamental disconnect of this magnitude will almost certainly be reconciled. Consider, the first steps towards a recession will certainly curb future rate hikes.

Australian Dollar: Thin Speculative Interest Could Amplify any Risk Waves Next Week

One of the side effects of reduced participation in the markets (thin liquidity) is amplified volatility. This is good for scalpers; but probably not good for the Australian dollar. Becoming more deeply intertwined in carry interest, a lack of inherent stability via leveraged swings will unnerve this expensive currency. And, when risk appetite does finally correct, the Aussie dollar stands to lose the most – and the market knows this.

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ECONOMIC DATA

Next 24 Hours

Currency	GMT	Release	Survey	Previous	Comments
CNY		Leading Index (NOV)		101.57	Declined in the last 8 months.
JPY	23:50	Corporate Service Price (YoY) (NOV)	-1.2%	-1.2%	Fell YoY in last 25 months.
JPY		Small Business Confidence (DEC)		45.8	Sits at lowest level since March.
GBP	0:01	Hometrack Housing Survey (MoM) (DEC)		-0.8%	Home prices fell for a fifth month in November on lagging demand.
GBP	0:01	Hometrack Housing Survey (YoY) (DEC)		-1.1%
CNY	2:00	Industrial Profits (YTD) (YoY) (NOV)		55.0%	Electricity profits rose 120%.
JPY	4:00	Vehicle Production (YoY) (NOV)		-8.4%	Fell YoY for first time since 2009.
JPY	5:00	Housing Starts (YoY) (NOV)	4.9%	6.4%	Housing starts likely rose for a sixth month in November.
JPY	5:00	Annualized Housing Starts (NOV)	0.831M	0.813M	Housing starts likely rose for a sixth month in November.
JPY	5:00	Construction Orders (YoY) (NOV)		-5.6%	Last annual gain was in May.
USD	15:30	Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity (DEC)	17.0	16.2	Likely rose to an 8-month high.

Currency	GMT	Upcoming Events & Speeches
JPY	23:50	Bank of Japan Meeting Minutes

SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS

CLASSIC SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE - 18:00 GMT

Currency	EUR/USD	GBP/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	USD/CAD	AUD/USD	NZD/USD	EUR/JPY	GBP/JPY
Resist 2	1.3840	1.6420	89.00	1.0460	1.0922	1.0600	0.8230	127.60	146.05
Resist 1	1.3700	1.5910	86.00	1.0000	1.0750	1.0200	0.8000	120.00	140.00
Spot	1.3112	1.5441	82.88	0.9630	1.0076	1.0047	0.7493	108.68	127.98
Support 1	1.3000	1.5312	80.00	0.9500	0.9950	0.9600	0.6850	103.80	125.00
Support 2	1.2925	1.5186	75.00	0.9000	0.9700	0.9375	0.6585	100.00	119.00

CLASSIC SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE –EMERGING MARKETS 18:00 GMTSCANDIES CURRENCIES 18:00 GMT

Currency	USD/MXN	USD/TRY	USD/ZAR	USD/HKD	USD/SGD	Currency	USD/SEK	USD/DKK	USD/NOK
Resist 2	14.4500	1.6755	8.7915	7.8165	1.4945	Resist 2	7.7500	5.7800	6.2750
Resist 1	13.8500	1.5931	8.3675	7.8075	1.4655	Resist 1	7.5800	5.6625	6.1150
Spot	12.3680	1.5470	6.7320	7.7817	1.2995	Spot	6.8607	5.6840	5.9692
Support 1	12.0500	1.4724	6.6950	7.7490	1.2750	Support 1	6.4500	5.2625	5.7030
Support 2	11.7200	1.3475	6.4300	7.7450	1.2500	Support 2	6.1250	5.1000	5.5200

INTRA-DAY PIVOT POINTS 18:00 GMT

Currency	EUR/USD	GBP/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	USD/CAD	AUD/USD	NZD/USD	EUR/JPY	GBP/JPY
Resist 2	1.3177	1.5503	83.28	0.9689	1.0147	1.0072	0.7519	109.25	128.69
Resist 1	1.3144	1.5472	83.08	0.9660	1.0111	1.0060	0.7506	108.96	128.34
Pivot	1.3117	1.5445	82.97	0.9606	1.0081	1.0040	0.7485	108.77	128.08
Support 1	1.3084	1.5414	82.77	0.9577	1.0045	1.0028	0.7472	108.48	127.73
Support 2	1.3057	1.5387	82.66	0.9523	1.0015	1.0008	0.7451	108.29	127.47

INTRA-DAY PROBABILITY BANDS 18:00 GMT

Currency	EUR/USD	GBP/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	USD/CAD	AUD/USD	NZD/USD	EUR/JPY	GBP/JPY
Resist. 3	1.3309	1.5598	83.86	0.9716	1.0210	1.0187	0.7585	110.32	129.67
Resist. 2	1.3260	1.5556	83.62	0.9685	1.0183	1.0152	0.7558	109.91	129.23
Resist. 1	1.3212	1.5513	83.38	0.9655	1.0156	1.0117	0.7531	109.51	128.78
Spot	1.3115	1.5428	82.90	0.9594	1.0101	1.0046	0.7477	108.71	127.89
Support 1	1.3018	1.5343	82.42	0.9533	1.0046	0.9975	0.7423	107.91	127.00
Support 2	1.2970	1.5300	82.18	0.9503	1.0019	0.9940	0.7396	107.51	126.55
Support 3	1.2921	1.5258	81.94	0.9472	0.9992	0.9905	0.7369	107.10	126.11

Written by: John Kicklighter, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive John’s reports via email or to submit Questions or Comments about an article; email jkicklighter@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news on the economic reports and political events that influence the currency market.
Learn currency trading with a free practice account and charts from FXCM.